"When the market goes against you, you hope that every day will be the last day – and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope. And when the market goes your way, you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit and you get out – too soon. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts." J.Livermore
This update will have 2 parts, first is the market update, and second is about analysis of my recent trade and mistakes.
Bitcoin market update:
Since yesterday, market has been sliding lower with above average volume, but the volume is much lower than the first wave down. As I speak, we are retesting the lows of the previous low. However, this time, price has been consolidating here instead of the gradual climb from before. Looking at the 4 hour chart, we have broken below the descending triangle and that is bearish even at these oversold levels.
Paypal news as everyone is aware of, is good. It is good for adoption and good for fundamentals. As a technical analyst, I pay special attention to how market reacts to news. Lets be real, the ad is a BFD, big fucking deal, for rumors-ville, it pretty much suggest they will start adapting bitcoin into their existing business model. For a high speculative interest product like bitcoin, "buy the rumor, sell the news" works pretty darn well.
A lot of you expected some kind of bounce at 570 (few days ago), then 550 (1 day ago), and now 525(today). It is difficult to pick a bottom. One of my analogy for this is: you are blind folded and you need to grab a baseball bat. What are the chances that you will grab the end of it on each try? Not likely.
My point being: