5-28-2015 Bitcoin analysis, ibankbitcoins 1 year, and negative chart bias
On June 1st, it will be 1 year since I participated here and posted my first trade. I love the Bitcoin community and I frequently share my thoughts here. My current performance since last June is 164% non-leveraged gain. I keep a track record to re-evaluate myself and trades. In this process, I hope my posts were helpful. I know many times my trades and analysis conflict with the general consensus, but I thank you all for following whether you agree or not. Check out the bitcoin trading guide for posts through out this year
I am a firm believer in DOW theory, the starting of a bull rally consist of a higher highs and a higher lows. So far, we have made a few higher highs and lows in short succession. Therefore, I am slightly leaning towards the bull side which is why I also have more long trades than shorts the recent weeks. I truly don't know what the next move will be, I can only follow the trend.
While there are a lot of doom and gloom around reddit and twitter, I don't disagree with the large BFX longs and lack of support below 200. However, we as traders, especially chartists, are negatively biased. In other words, it is a lot easier to predict where market will drop and fall to per-existing levels than to predict how far the moon is. I have no doubt that if we break below 200, bitcoin will face further decline. I am also not convinced until market proves it to me that market can break below 200.