Bitcoin update and trade analysis 9/18/2014
This update will have 2 parts, first is the market update, and second is about analysis of my recent trade and mistakes.
Bitcoin market update:
Since yesterday, market has been sliding lower with above average volume, but the volume is much lower than the first wave down. As I speak, we are retesting the lows of the previous low. However, this time, price has been consolidating here instead of the gradual climb from before. Looking at the 4 hour chart, we have broken below the descending triangle and that is bearish even at these oversold levels.
At 450USD/2800CNY, this is really the last line of defense for the bulls. If we make new lows with volume, we are heading to 425. In the short term, I think we will bounce and retest previous resistance of the descending triangle. Then we will see whether the bears can push it back down.
Analysis of my recent trade and mistakes:
From yesterday, I said I had a soft stop at 463 and will exit if it reaches new lows. Market bounced, but was sliding off which triggered my phone alert at night. That was my exit, and I knew from the price action and the charts that the trade was wrong and market was heading lower. What did I do? I "hoped" that market would bounce again and form a bottom. Content with my imaginary market scenario, I went back to sleep. I had to cover my losses 5 points lower than where I intended to exit in the morning. My smoking of hopium cost me 5 points.
I was disappointed during work today for not being disciplined. Losing money is part of trading, losing money because hope and fear (maybe lack of sleep too) is the bane of any trader. My first exit was my best exit. All day at work, I was building up the courage to think about what to write tonight and admitting my mistakes. That is how I keep true to myself. This is how I keep true to my trading.