How to speculate news
Lets talk about speculation, many of you are aware that US marshal announced that they are going to auction off more coins. Some ask why this causes further price drop? Shouldn't it be discounted since this was known to be in Q1? Some long term holders will buy off the market so it should not affect price?
As a speculator, I personally only care about how a good/bad piece of news affects price. Auctioning coins is never a good news because it increases supply. How did market reaction to this? A 5% haircut. While we are still waiting for the market to settle to a new fair value, the trend is down in the short term. And for those who don't believe in TA, market was weak 3-4 hours before the announcement. So I suspect that some people already know about this ahead of time which is discounted in the bitcoin price.