What is the motivation behind ibankbitcoins' blog?
Just got back watching The Big Shorts movie. I apologize that there has been a growing discussion and hostility towards my trades, or me or both. I never intended to hi-jack the dailies. While I cannot prove anything on the internet about my trading skills or motivation, here is what I think at this moment:
My posting here, twitter and blog is intended to keep a back log/journal of my trades, ideas and the state of mind during price movements. I do not link to any paid services. Sometimes, I link to my blog or twitter for a time-stamp or a relevant link. If I want a financial job in the future, the backlog is good for my resume. I already get paid from my full-time job, trading stocks and bitcoin. My blog is exactly the same as a year and a half ago, I plan to keep it that way. If I were to pull some kind of fraud, my consistent posting here and my blog is the anti-thesis of that for the last year and a half. I do have a menu link as a referral to the exchanges I trade with, it pays for the server. Call it shilling if you will, but I have often praised and criticized the above exchanges when they fuck things up.
For those who followed me since I posted here, I didn't always get upvotes. More often than not, I got downvotes when I first started. As I consistently posted trades that were profitable on average(until recently), I gained internet points during this process. I think sharing this has value to the bitcoinmarkets community because some of these experiences are hard to come by: I was there when bitcoin was trading at 600 when i shorted it. I was there when market went deep bear below 200 when I went long. I was there when okcoin margin called literally every short up to 350 during a DDOS causing me to lose 8% of my coins from hedging, not even trading. I was there when bitfinex allowed me to trade at a leverage of more than 6:1. You often see traders yolo, come and go, but trading is a marathon.
Amateur traders like my old self don't survive long enough to tell stories later. A traders profitability shouldn't be measured based on a trade by trade basis, but based on expectancy, and confidence levels like statistics or stochastic calculus. My performance has been lackluster the last few month, down 4 in a row. This is part my mistake and part unlucky. If I were to throw darts at 50% win rate, chance of hitting 4 losses is 1/16. Is my strategy failing given the small sampling size? I am not sure until more trades happen, heck my current trade might be another loss too. If my trade performance is the price of a stock, is it a pullback for the next bull move or 100% retracement to zero? Nothing is guaranteed and i cannot say I will always be profitable, but my light at the end of the tunnel is my 6 years of stock trading experience. I am confident of that profitability will return, but I do not know when. What do I do in this situation? I am trading at 50% size to preserve capital. Whether I've hit an unlucky streak, or a change in market conditions, I plan to evaluate and fight another day as long I have my principal.
I hope this puts all of this discussion behind us so we can focus on the market and enjoy the holiday instead.